COVID stats for QC

by Hugh

I’ve been doing this on Facebook for a while, but maybe it’s better on the open web:

Latest QC COVID data as we go back to school on Thursday.

A couple of notes on data I’m showing:

1. I’ve added “test positivity %” as a metric. That is, what percentage of COVID tests are returning positive results? According to the American Association of Paediatrics, you want your positivity rates at or below 1% before opening
schools. We are there, so that is a good thing.
2. I’ve changed the hospitalization metric to “how many hospitalizations” instead of “change in number of hospitalizations.” I think this gives a better idea of how things are going now.

Anyway, here are the numbers:

QC COVID DATA:

NEW CASES/day (7-day average)
6 weeks ago 95
5 weeks ago 153
4 weeks ago 166
3 weeks ago 132
2 weeks ago 122
1 week ago 83
last 7 days 75

TOTAL CASES: 61,741
Total cases since June 24: 6,804

COMMENTS: Fewer cases per day is better than more. Like Evan Prodromou I would like to see 0 cases per day. But we are not there yet, and I guess school opening will make things worse. (Please mandate masks for all students/staff at all times).

TEST POSITIVITY RATE (7-day average)
6 weeks ago 1.51%
5 weeks ago 1.60%
4 weeks ago 1.63%
3 weeks ago 1.36%
2 weeks ago 1.16%
1 week ago 0.87%
last 7 days 0.81%

COMMENTS: A new stat! And a good one. Note that at the height of the pandemic here in early May we were seeing positivity rates of 20% and more. This may be the key stat to watch, if positivity is going up then a response is needed. But, we’re under 1% positivity, which is where we want to be. (Note: Looking at these numbers going back to the beginning of the pandemic, I think this metric might be driving a lot of decision-making at the policy level).

TOTAL NUMBER IN HOSPITAL (7-day average)
6 weeks ago 305
5 weeks ago 251
4 weeks ago 200
3 weeks ago 172
2 weeks ago 157
1 week ago 145
last 7 days 115

COMMENT: I changed the stat here to track number of people in the hospital for COVID (previously was tracking change). We can see that the hospital situation continues to improve, and continues to be completely manageable. Good.

DEATHS/day (7-day average):
6 weeks ago 3
5 weeks ago 5
4 weeks ago 4
3 weeks ago 1
2 weeks ago 1
1 week ago 2
last 7 days 2

Total deaths: 5,737
Deaths since June 24: 208
Deaths/million: 675
Death rate (since June 24): 3.1%

COMMENTS: Things are getting marginally worse here, but I’d say still manageable and acceptable. Keep in mind that in May there were ~100 deaths per day. Note that a 3% death rate still seems very high compared to elsewhere.

Overall:
Please urge the government to mandate masks for everyone everywhere (including classrooms) in schools.